Over the past ten years, China's acrylic acid production capacity has experienced two peaks. The first wave was the concentrated expansion of production from 2005 to 2006, basically completing import substitution. Acrylic acid production capacity increased from 180,000 tons in 2004 to 850,000 tons in 2006, and the new capacity was digested in the next two years. By 2007 The domestic acrylic acid price fell by about 1/3. The second wave was the expansion of production from 2011 to 2012. Acrylic acid production capacity increased from 1.148 million tons in 2010 to 1.878 million tons in 2012. Since the second half of last year, the production capacity has been digested. To date, the price of acrylic acid is higher than that in 2011 22,000 yuan / ton fell about half.
From the above trajectory, the two concentrated expansion of acrylic acid production capacity has brought a significant drop in the price of acrylic acid. At present, the price of acrylic acid is at the bottom of the cycle. We judge that from now until 2014, acrylic acid need not be too pessimistic, and 2013 is expected to pick up.
On the one hand, the downstream demand is expected to pick up: the growth rate of real estate development investment has bottomed out, and we expect that the growth rate of architectural coatings will continue to decline. The demand for acrylic acid used in the health sector still maintains a rapid growth of more than 20% in the packaging field Demand also maintained a steady growth of around 15%.
On the other hand, from 2013 to the first half of 2014, in addition to the new capacity of 320,000 tons of satellite petrochemical companies, other production capacity is not much. 320,000 tons of satellite petrochemicals are ready to be put into production at the end of this year and the second quarter of next year; Formosa and BASF The 280,000 tons of new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of 2014 at the earliest, and may be delayed. In addition, since the second half of 2011, some enterprises with small scale, poor cost control, and high unit consumption have been at a loss, and some production capacity is actually at a standstill; Jihua, Lanhua, and Shenhua have been losing money recently, Dongfang Petrochemical The 80,000 tons is basically not opened. In 2012, the nominal production capacity of acrylic acid was close to 1.9 million tons, but the national effective production capacity was about 1.6 million tons. The operating rate of effective production capacity was still above 80%. The excess capacity was not as bad as expected. With the further increase in the growth rate of the industry's production capacity, digesting these new production capacity will be the high-purity acrylic acid and super absorbent resin SAP with broad development prospects.
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