Why is the paper market falling into freezing point? After reading this analysis, it’s true.

On the morning of November 11, 2018, Wei Jie gave a lecture on the latest trend of China's macro economy at the lakeside. From a macro perspective, he analyzed the phenomenon of Chinese social life. The periodic characteristics of paper superimposed on the special background of macro economy will make you Learn more about the nature of the current paper market .

One or six serious phenomena

Since March of this year, there have been six very serious phenomena in Chinese social life.

The first phenomenon, the amount of the industry reflects that enterprises are very difficult to do, and the pressure is very high. Small enterprises have both cost pressures and financial pressures. Some failures and closures occurred in June and July, so the first thing reflected in the real economy, some companies are calling for very difficult to do, and in June and July, they began to close down.

The second phenomenon is that the situation of corporate default is getting worse. The debt can not be repaid at maturity, and the breach of contract is very serious. At the beginning, it was a state-owned enterprise, later went to a private enterprise, and finally to a listed company. Listed companies have a lot of defaults, so it seems that the break of the debt chain has become more and more serious.

The third phenomenon, non-bank financial institutions, especially the so-called new business formats in these years, has suddenly exploded, and the non-bank financial institutions generated in the past few years have problems. It was very serious in July.

The fourth phenomenon, the stock market has an irrational decline. It turns out that we think that the national economy may affect the stock market decline of 300 points to 2800. As a result, it did not expect that the US stock market fell by 300 points. By 2500, the stock market experienced an irrational decline.

In the fifth phenomenon, investors are more panic. Because no security assets can be found, the family does not know what assets are the safest and cannot find security assets. Investors are very scared because the assets are not safest and don't know. Because the security asset is like a social motivation scale, once it is not, it is completely out of tune, and the pressure is very high.

The sixth phenomenon, people are very confused, and are not expected to be optimistic. I don't know where China is going, it is very confused, and the phenomenon of confusion is even worse after October.

As a result, these six kinds of socio-economic phenomena have emerged since March, and overall they are not too optimistic about the future.

Then there is a question. Why do these six phenomena appear now? Why do people feel that the future expectations are not very good? The analysis found that:

Second, why are these six phenomena appearing?

There is no problem with China's fundamentals, and there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the entire social economy. The desire of the Chinese to become rich is still very strong, the momentum is still there, and the impulse is still very strong. Especially to the grassroots, the power is stronger. The driving force for China's economic growth still exists. People's pursuit of interests and the longing for a better life are still strong.

Second, there is no problem in the market. China is still one of the world's most single markets, with a population of nearly 1.4 billion. The proportion of the middle class is still rising, and there is no situation of consumption degradation. There is no evidence for the downgrade of consumption. It is simply because the sale of mustard is much more, and the instant noodles are sold more before consumption is downgraded. Without evidence, China is still a very market country.

Third, China is still the country with the most complete industrial categories announced by the United Nations. According to the industrial categories announced by the United Nations, China is the most complete country. There is no such thing as the rise in labor costs and the fact that some manufacturing industries have left China. The most typical Dongguan is one of the important manufacturers of Chinese furniture. We found that there is still a problem. If we do not go, they absorb the pressure brought by the rising labor force through self-adjustment, so the industrial category is still very complete, and this has not changed.

Fourth, China's transportation facilities are still one of the most convenient and convenient countries in the world, and will be getting better and better. This is very beneficial to the breakthrough of transportation pressure. The transportation facilities are still the most convenient and convenient country.

Fifth, the highest decision-making level has not changed the intention of reform and development trends. Although there are various sayings in the society, what private economy is leaving the market, etc., there is no intention at the highest decision-making level to change China’s reform and opening up trend. intention.

If this is analyzed, there is nothing wrong with the most fundamental aspects. Since there are no problems with the fundamentals, why do these six phenomena occur? Later, the results of the analysis found that the main thing was that five things ran together. These five things, everything has negative things. A single occurrence does not affect too much, but the effects of the five things colliding together, the negative effects are superimposed. The negative things brought about by each of these five things are superimposed. This is a little troublesome, so there is a phenomenon of superposition of negative effects, which leads to the emergence of these six phenomena.

Third, what five things?

1. The first thing, we are preventing financial risks.

There are many policies introduced to prevent financial risks, such as de-leveraging, such as controlling real estate, such as managing financial chaos, etc. These practices have a double-edged sword. While achieving financial risks, it has brought negative things. Lead to the pressure of corporate capital chain comparison, and even break. In particular, companies with high debt and high growth in the past are basically unable to survive. And they have a variety of connections with normal companies, and companies that cause normal debts are not working. You know that China is a country that has long been operating on high debt. The proportion of direct financing is very small. It basically depends on the operation of debts. It has been so over for decades. Suddenly, it is necessary to de-leverage, to shrink the debt, the enterprise can not stand it, leading to the break of some debt-rich corporate capital chains, and they have various links with other normal debt-producing enterprises, leading to problems in normal enterprises. The so-called prevention of financial risks is correct, nothing wrong. The problem is that the negative things it brings are also manifested. From the perspective of economics, any countermeasures are double-edged swords. Therefore, an important pressure to prevent financial risks is that corporate financial tensions are more serious. Debt defaults, capital chain breaks, and the rude practices of some people in the operation, blindly reluctant to lend, make the situation even more serious. The first thing, preventing financial risks leads to some negative things, and corporate pressure is very high.

2. The second thing, we are doing supply-side structural reforms.

The supply-side structural reform is actually a structural adjustment, and the economics community divides people's lives into the demand side and the supply side. Demand side, investment demand, consumer demand, exports, etc., this is the demand side. The supply side refers to the production side, and the supply side structure refers to the industrial structure. Therefore, the industrial structure is being adjusted because some industries that originally supported us cannot continue to support China's economic growth. Like the traditional manufacturing, construction, and real estate industries, it is difficult to continue to grow because they have problems. The so-called traditional manufacturing industry has a serious overcapacity, and we propose to de-capacity. The real estate bubble is taking shape. We have to curb the asset bubble, which indicates that it is difficult for these industries to continue to support China's development. China needs new industries to support growth.

These industries have been judged through analysis, know which industries will support us, and propose that the three industries will support China in the future:

First, strategic emerging industries, such as new energy, new materials, bioengineering, information technology and mobile Internet, energy saving and environmental protection, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., we are also called strategic emerging industries, it will support us. increase.

Second, the service industry, the service industry will become an important industry supporting China's development. Consumer services, business services, production services, spiritual services, etc., will support China's growth.

Third, modern manufacturing, such as aerospace manufacturing, high-speed rail equipment manufacturing, UHV transmission equipment manufacturing, modern traditional manufacturing, etc., will support China's growth.

Recognizing that these three industries will support China's growth, it is pushing for structural adjustment. However, the adjustment needs the process. At present, it is in the midst of adjusting a gap period. The contribution of the original traditional industry has dropped rapidly, and the new industry has not risen up, or is getting up. There is still no such power, and there is a gap in structural adjustment. The negative thing brought about by this gap period is that the pressure to slow down is very high, the growth is unsettled, and the income has been going down. Therefore, the adjustment of the structure of this gap period brings a lot of pressure, that is, the pressure of the decline of growth is very high, resulting in the expectations of future judgments are not clear. This is the negative thing brought about by the second thing. The structural adjustment gap period leads to a slowdown in growth rate.

3. The third thing is that China is transforming old and new kinetic energy.

The original support for China's growth was mainly a cost advantage, and the cost advantage has suddenly disappeared. In principle, the disappearance of the cost advantage should be the technical advantage. After the cost advantage disappears, the technical advantage should soon grow up to ensure China's growth. But now the problem is that the formation of technological advantages requires a process, and there is a gap between the old and new kinetic energy conversion. The original advantages are lost, and the new technological advantages have not yet come out, leading to a decline in growth pressure. There is also a gap period in the process of converting old and new kinetic energy. The negative thing is that the growth pressure is lower, and people's expectations do not seem to be very good.

4. The fourth thing is that China is engaged in the so-called ecological civilization reform.

You know that the nineteenth and the past are the most different points, mentioning the "five reforms", economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological. The reform of ecological civilization has become one of the "five tasks" of reform. We are promoting the reform of ecological civilization. Ecological civilization is nothing more than two things:

One thing is to solve the treatment of waste water, waste gas and solid waste in the process of industrialization and urbanization. This requires raising the company's emission standards, because as long as this requires the company to raise emission standards, the standards for wastewater, waste gas and garbage should be raised.

Another thing, the restoration of the ecological environment, because this is an important part of the so-called ecological civilization, the restoration of the ecological environment. The ecological confounding repair also puts high demands on enterprises. For example, in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, factories within 3 km are not allowed to build factories. What have been done in the past? We have built many factories beside rivers and lakes, and now we have to move Drop it.

The reform of ecological civilization has led to one thing. The pressure of enterprises due to ecological problems, coupled with the rudeness in our law enforcement process, has caused many enterprises to close down and stop production. The growth rate will inevitably fall back, and the pressure is very high. The reform of ecological civilization has led to a very troublesome thing. Whether the enterprise is emitting standards or relocating, it will affect the current economic growth, and the growth rate will fall back.

In the past, we called ecology and the environment to make way for development. As long as we develop everything else, it is now reversed. Now it is the development of the ecological environment, and different ruling thinking has come out. As long as the development is easy, the environmental and ecological influence will not work. Now the family sees that it is obviously developing to make way for the ecological environment. Originally, the Yangtze River Economic Belt was mentioned. The family thought that it would develop. The result was that it was mainly protected. Within 3 kilometers, factories were not allowed to build factories. All must be moved, resulting in a decline in economic growth and a decline in growth pressure.

What you want is already obvious. In the past, we have to develop. Now we need an ecological environment. Of course, development and growth will be affected. Last time we were a pharmaceutical company in Yinchuan, because it was a lot of raw material productivity of pharmaceutical companies, and as a result, because the ecology was turned off, I went to see it. As soon as I saw it, I understood what you want, to develop and continue to produce, and to get the environment. The trend of our country's mountains is to go west. Only one north-south trend is Helan Mountain, which has produced the Yinchuan Plain. If left unchecked, this plain will not disappear in 20 years. What must be clarified. It is now obvious that the environment is ecological, and as a result, the growth rate is reduced.

5. The fifth thing, the Sino-US trade war.

The United States is fighting trade. We didn't want to fight. At least I didn't want to fight. Because the US economy is on the rise, judging from economics, it can trade with China in the downturn. It is a trade war on the upside. of. It turned out that we judged that the trade war was not too affective to us. As a result, we did not expect that the psychological impact on people was very high. In terms of reason, we have calculated that the United States and our trade war can be digested. But ten years ago, we are definitely finished, kneeling on the spot. You can check the information. In 2007, our growth mode was export-oriented growth. In 2007, the total GDP was 27 trillion yuan, the export was 9 trillion yuan, and the import was 5 trillion yuan. The proportion of exports in GDP is almost 30%, and the surplus accounts for 11.3% of GDP. These two figures show that China is an export-oriented country.

This is the United States wants to fight trade, we surrender on the spot, because it can not stand. Later, in 2008, a world financial crisis was created. This crisis is a sober understanding of China. A country like China with an economic mass cannot guide exports to develop the economy. China has adjusted its strategy and moved toward domestic demand. We started to transform in 2008 and turned for ten years. Actually turned around last year. Last year, the total GDP was 82 trillion, the export was 15 trillion, and the import was 13 trillion. The proportion of exports to total GDP fell by about 15%, from 30% to 15%, and half. The surplus accounted for 11.3% of exports to 1.3%. This data indicates that China has adjusted. Let's take a look. The United States fights the trade war to the end. One penny does not allow China to export to the United States. The impact on us is 0.2-0.5 growth. We can digest it, and there is no problem. But I did not expect this psychological impact on us. As long as the United States announced a tax increase, the Chinese stock market will definitely fall the next day. The investors always ask us, we have no exports, and we are always hurt. The export volume of listed companies is not, how is it always affecting the stock market, because the psychological problem, the stock market is the market most affected by psychology, did not expect psychological impact. This psychological impact almost leads to a whole impact on us. Because Sino-US economic relations have been relatively stable over the past 40 years, when this problem arises, people have no way to judge it. They are worried that they will go to the Cold War. If we really want to go to the Cold War, the Chinese economy will be very troublesome, so this psychological impact is very high, leading people to be confused and expected to be poor.

In these five things, everything has negative things. If it is a single thing, it will be easy to handle. As a result, five things collide and negative things are also smashed together. The concept of economics appears and the negative effects are superimposed. The negative things collided together, and the negative effects were superimposed. Eventually, the Chinese economy had a negative effect superposition from March to the present.

This kind of analysis can conclude that the Chinese economy has not entered a recession, but has entered an adjustment period. This is an important judgment. Because from a fundamental point of view, we did not enter the recession period because the five things collided together and there was a negative effect superposition, marking the Chinese economy entering an adjustment period. We estimate that the adjustment period will take at least three years. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, three years of adjustment is required to enter the high-quality development stage. The high-quality development stage is not a slogan. To truly turn to standardization, three years will be an adjustment period. After the adjustment period has solved these negative things one by one, the Chinese economy can enter the so-called high-quality growth period.

Fourth, the adjustment period, do three things

The Chinese economy has not actually entered a recession period and has entered an adjustment period. How to adjust, gradually form a consensus, and do three things:

The first thing must be to stabilize finance.

Finance must be stable, and finance cannot rise and fall, so the first thing is to stabilize finance. Because once the financial stability can not be achieved, the adjustment period is difficult to spend. The overall development of the real economy depends on financial support. If there is a rise and fall in finance, there may be confusion in this adjustment period. Therefore, the first thing to do is to stabilize finance and finance must be stable.

How to stabilize finance? It is estimated that there are five things to do:

1. Control monetary policy.

The core of finance is monetary policy, and we must control monetary policy. The goal of controlling monetary policy is to prevent business risks on the one hand and to maintain growth on the other, these two must be combined.

In this way, there are three key points in controlling monetary policy. It is important to control three key points:

1 The first point is to ensure a neutral and stable monetary policy. This cannot be changed.

If monetary policy is once again loose, then financial risks will definitely break out. If you don't think about it, you will definitely have the pressure of financial risks again, so you have to maintain the neutrality and stability of monetary policy. Maintaining an important indicator of neutral stability, the growth rate of money supply should be well controlled. The speed at which the money supply growth rate is known can be simply understood as the speed at which money is produced, and the speed at which money is issued can be understood as simple as this. This data must be controlled because this data marks the currency issue. An important indicator of neutral stability is that the growth rate of money supply must be at a low speed. According to economic principles, the rate of GDP growth plus the inflation rate, plus one parameter, should be the growth rate of money supply. In this article, we basically control it. The growth rate of money in September is 8.3%. You know that in the past, it was below double digits, with an average annual rate of 17%. Now it has controlled to one digit, 8.3%, that is GDP6.5. % plus the inflation rate of 2%, another adjustment parameter is the data it should have. It seems that this article is doing well now. It has been in one digit since this year. It was only 8.3% in September. The data in October has not yet come out. It is important to ensure that this data is neutral and stable. If this data is not well controlled, important operational risk pressures will occur. The first point of controlling monetary policy is to maintain monetary policy neutral and stable.

2 Second, sufficient liquidity to ensure adequate liquidity.

The liquidity of production and operation activities of enterprises must be satisfied, and the liquidity is sufficient. This one seems to be adjusting recently, to ensure sufficient. What to do, use a lot of currency tools, such as RRR cuts. A few days ago, it was reversed to buy 150 billion yuan, which is equivalent to releasing 150 billion yuan of liquidity to the market. In this way, an important point of monetary policy, to ensure sufficient liquidity, then the use of monetary policy tools, the purpose of the recent adjustment is to ensure that the company's normal demand for funds, liquidity is sufficient, this article seems to be able to maintain.

3 Third, monetary policy must achieve its goals smoothly.

The transmission mechanism must be smooth. For example, monetary policy supports the real economy and supports the private economy. This is a targeted goal. How can we conduct it, then we must study the monetary policy transmission mechanism must be smooth. For example, in order to support the private economy to add a new indicator to the bank's assessment indicators, it is proportional control. Assuming that the loan is 10 billion yuan this year, 40% must be guaranteed to the private economy, and there are strict assessment indicators. In the past, it was a slogan. Now it is an indicator, and it can guarantee a smooth flow to the private economy. The monetary policy transmission mechanism has to be adjusted smoothly. The most important adjustment is the structural control of bank loans. How much will be credited this year, how much will flow to the private economy, and there are quality requirements.

Comrade Guo Shuqing recently said that at least one-third of the bank’s loans will flow to the private economy. Small and medium-sized banks' 2/3 loans must flow to the private economy, and 50% will flow to the private economy after five years. This is structural control. This control ensures that the monetary policy can transmit smoothly. In the past, I used to support the private economy. The reason why I couldn’t support it was because there was a problem with the transmission mechanism, and the conduction could not continue. Now it must be transmitted smoothly. Then support the real economy to stipulate this year's loans, such as 10 billion, 9 billion must flow to the real economy, and the non-real economy is 10%, which can be called support for the real economy. For all banks to use new assessment indicators, the new assessment indicators have reached an important result, that is, the transmission mechanism is smooth. Support the real economy, support the private economy, and the transmission mechanism must be smooth. Recently, adjustments are being made. I estimate that after a month, the family will generally feel that they really support the real economy and support the private economy. Because the transmission mechanism has been adjusted, it must be conducted smoothly.

The first thing we do to stabilize finance and control monetary policy is mainly these three points.

One is to adhere to a neutral and stable monetary policy;

The second is to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet the funding needs of enterprises;

Third, the transmission mechanism is smooth and can achieve the set goals.

For example, supporting the real economy and supporting the private economy is the first thing that financial stability must do to control monetary policy. If these three adjustments are made, we can achieve the goal of stabilizing finance, which is the first thing to do to stabilize finance.

2. The deleveraging policy, the deleveraging policy is now adjusted.

De-leveraging is not wrong, because the leverage is really high. According to the data released in the first quarter of this year:

Government debt accounts for 35.2% of total GDP, which is low. The reason for the low level is not to falsify, because the government debt is not counted in the company's liabilities.

Second, corporate debt is 159% of GDP growth. This figure is high, and corporate debt is not so much. The reason for the high is to put the two levels of government into corporate liabilities, one is the development zone debt, and the other is the local financing debt. If these two are removed, the corporate debt is only 130% of the total GDP, not so high. The nature of the borrowing entity is indeed the enterprise. If it is removed, the true debt of the enterprise is 130% of the total GDP. Third, personal debt accounted for 55.8% of total GDP. Personal debt accounted for 30% of the total at the end of 2015. In 2016 and 2017, the two countries rose rapidly, and now it is 55.8%.

Personal debts are mainly mortgages and car loans, cities are mainly mortgages, and rural areas are mainly car loans, causing personal debt to rise too fast. Although it did not reach the red warning line, it rose too fast. Adding these three kinds of debts, the total social debt accounts for 250% of the total GDP, which is indeed too high. According to some scholars, when social debt rises to 270% of GDP, it will set off a serious financial risk. At the beginning of this year, we began to de-leverage, which is to reduce the debt ratio.

From the experience and lessons of the first half of the year, it seems a bit too fierce, and a bit across the board. On July 31, the Politburo meeting proposed to adjust the deleveraging policy, two adjustments. One is to control the strength of de-leveraging. The strength must be controlled well. It should not be too fierce. If it is too fierce, the enterprise can't stand it. It is necessary to control the strength. More strength, what does it mean, no one has estimated, in the end how much, no one knows. I checked the information of the relevant decision-making departments and realized that the so-called strength means that this year, it is not the normal level of leverage, it is three years. First, the leverage ratio will be reduced from 250% to 200%, 200% is still high, no hurry, continue to drop after three years, and then reduce to normal level in two years, only to reduce the debt to normal level in five years. If the first three years are reduced from 250% to 200%, the leverage will be 40 trillion, about 13 trillion a year. About 13 trillion, the enterprise can afford it, and the problem should not be too. In this way, after the adjustment of the intensity, it will ensure that it can not only prevent financial risks, but also ensure that the capital chain of the enterprise will not break and ensure the capital needs of enterprises.

One adjustment is the so-called control strength; the second adjustment is to structural de-leverage, that is, no longer make a one-size-fits-all, the private economy leverage ratio is not high, they should not talk about the so-called de-leverage. Structural de-leverage, whoever has a high leverage will go to who. I have set two priorities, one is state-owned and the other is local government debt. These two are indeed a bit high. The de-leverage of state-owned enterprises and the de-leveraging of local governments have become the focus of structural leverage. The state-owned enterprises have been de-leveraging. I have looked at it. In the first half of the year, the new levers of state-owned enterprises have been controlled by two methods, which is a new round. The debt has been brought under control. The State Council issued a strict document that all state-owned enterprise liabilities must meet the required standards, starting with the central enterprises. The documents are very strict and the organization's liabilities continue to rise. The other one is proposed, we will no longer engage in rigid redemption, state-owned enterprise debt, the state will no longer give more. In the past, the state gave it, called rigid redemption. There is no problem with state-owned enterprises borrowing money, and finally they can come back because the country is at the bottom. In the first half of the year, it was officially proposed that the state would not be the bottom, and all of them had limited liability. Therefore, it is necessary to borrow money from state-owned enterprises and buy state-owned enterprise bonds. It is possible that money will not come back.

A lot of state-owned enterprises are finally dealt with bankruptcy and reorganization. A lot of money is equal to fighting for water, and the country will no longer engage in rigid redemption. Strictly speaking, there is no such thing as a guaranteed capital management project because it is a limited liability. This adjustment has led to the fact that the speed of new debts of state-owned enterprises has been controlled. Now is the question of how to do the stocks. What should I do in the past? Later, one idea was to solve the problem of state-owned enterprises' stocks, and the settlement of liabilities should be combined with the reform of state-owned enterprises. How to combine it, the reform of state-owned enterprises is two key points this year. First, the main business must be determined, and the main business must be determined. After the main business is determined, non-main business assets must be sold and must be realized. The money realized can not be used for new investment, must be repaid, and the debt is repaid through non-main business. The second key point of the reform of state-owned enterprises is the mixed economy. To promote the mixed economy on a large scale, it is necessary to absorb non-state-owned capital into state-owned enterprises, which is equivalent to increasing the proportion of capital of state-owned capital. The share was done and the value was done. The most successful one is the China Unicom reform. China Unicom has mixed an important result and lowered the liability of China Unicom. How did it come down? It was the decline of the country’s rise to absolute control. The state had no controlling interest in China Unicom, and the debt was reduced through mixed reform. State-owned enterprise reform, the stock of state-owned enterprises seems to have fallen a bit.

In addition, the local government, the local government has now controlled the new debt, the "three measures" in the first half of the year is very strict.

One way, all the liabilities of the development zone will be cut off, and the development zone loans will not be allowed. The development zone is an important channel for local government debt. It was completely cut off in the first half of this year and no loans were allowed. I estimate that the development zone will basically be out of flame next year, and it will be interrupted by the operation of the loan.

The second is to clean up the PPP project and the 3P project has been cleaned up. The important channel of local government's current debt is the 3P project. The central government has completely re-cleaned it. After the 3P project is cleaned up, it is equivalent to controlling the new government's new liabilities.

Third, the Central Organization Department has issued a document, and any cadre promotion or mobilization of the increased assessment indicators - the debt ratio is not how much you have done GDP, how many roads have been repaired, to check the debt ratio. Exceeding the debt ratio is dismissed on the spot and will never be used again. It is very strict. Recently, several county party secretaries were exempted because the debt ratio exceeded the standard. Especially in poor counties, the family noticed that several county party secretaries have been exempted recently. This indicator puts the black yarn caps together, which makes it difficult to increase the debt ratio.

These three methods have actually controlled the new local liabilities. What are the main things now? What to do with the stocks, what to do in the past. I went to a place where the total GDP per year was only 10 trillion yuan and the debt was 200 trillion. You want to pay more for this. In 31 provinces and cities across the country, only six provinces and cities pay money to the central government, and others rely on central transfer payments to maintain operations. If you think about this, how can it pay off debts, and pay debts in two ways, one tax, one land. The tax is basically a lot better, because it is paid by the central transfer. Another land sale, which is constantly being streamed, I estimate that the most troublesome thing about future debts is how to deal with local debt. This is a problem.

Someone asked me why I prefer central enterprises. Central enterprises are in the upper reaches of the industry. The central government balances the financial profits of the local governments by more than 3 trillion yuan a year. Although the efficiency is very low, the money is for the country. The efficiency of private enterprises is high, but money is not for the country, some people do not understand, so you have to understand, rely on it to balance the finances across the country. Central enterprises are in the upper reaches of the industry, and the downstream is very powerful. They are making money. Although the efficiency of central enterprises is not high, it pays the country, and this can be balanced. This is a very problematic existence. Local debt is a problem and structural de-leverage. I estimate that the so-called state-owned enterprises are still somewhat lost. The local government basically has no loss now. There is no problem in Hangzhou. There is no problem in Zhejiang. But many places have problems. There are more problems than no problems. So it is a very difficult thing to do, but slowly solve it. There is no further leverage in this meeting. I estimate that the deleveraging policy will make some new adjustments in the future. Turning the de-lever to the stable leverage, what is the reason? This year, the goal has been achieved. This year, the leverage is very strong. Almost the indicator has been completed. It is estimated that it will gradually turn to stable leverage. Stabilize first, don't worry, first stabilize for a while, let the growth recover. The deleveraging policy will shift to stable leverage, which may be the next step.

To control the deleveraging policy, the family has seen it adjusted for the second time this year. July 31 is the first time. It is proposed to control the de-leverage, structural de-leverage, and not to make a one-size-fits-all approach. The deleveraging task is not completed in a year or two. It is a process that may gradually move toward stable leverage. In the coming months, de-leverage should move toward stable leverage. This is correct, because you have to ensure financial stability, and finance cannot rise and fall. Therefore, it is necessary to move toward stable leverage and properly stabilize the leverage in the current state.

I looked at the data. By the end of August, the leverage had dropped from 250% to 242%, which is the data at the end of August. It shows that this year, the momentum of leverage has been controlled. Under this condition, it should be stabilized for a period of time. It should not be too fast and too fast, and it will turn to stable leverage. After December, people will feel that the financial situation is gradually alleviated, and the entire social capital demand will be alleviated. There should be no problem. This is the second thing that financial stability needs to do. Adjusting and controlling the policy of de-leveraging at any time, not only to prevent financial risks, but also to ensure economic growth demand, this is the second thing that financial stability must do.

3. Stabilize foreign exchange.

Foreign exchange must be stabilized. At home, the central bank officially announced the monetary policy report yesterday. In the third quarter policy report, there was a reference to foreign exchange, "pay more attention to the regulation role of the market." This time changed, it is obvious that this time, I will pay more attention to the regulation and control of the foreign exchange countries, and once again tell the foreign exchange that the foreign exchange can't go wrong. Steady foreign exchange seems to have been basically determined, and foreign exchange can't go wrong. The monetary policy report of the previous quarter is still emphasizing the role of the market. At this time, the role of the state is clearly emphasized. It shows that stable foreign exchange is an important factor in stabilizing finance. Once the foreign exchange goes wrong, the local currency will have problems, and the scale of the whole society will disappear. turmoil. The key to stabilizing finance is to stabilize foreign exchange. The central bank’s monetary policy report released yesterday once again emphasizes the importance of stabilizing foreign exchange, and the state will release this role.

How to stabilize it, two references:

One, the renminbi cannot continue to depreciate, this is a reference.

Someone once asked me what the specific indicators are, how much is called continuous depreciation, how much is called continuous depreciation, and a quantity. From now on, it can't break 7, it may be an indicator. You notice that there are two times that will be broken on July 21, August 21, and will break 7 in the first few days, but immediately rebounded after two hours, it must be "Yang Ma". Recently, the deputy governor of the central bank once again announced to the world that you want to short the people of the renminbi, let us hand over and warn you not to short the renminbi. Can not break 7, may be called can not continue to depreciate. From the current situation, the meaning of not being able to continue to depreciate means that it cannot expire. Because it will break 7 for two consecutive times, and finally bounce back, it shows that the decision maker's consciousness is that it can't continue to depreciate or can't break 7. This is an indicator.

The second indicator is that the amount of foreign exchange reserves cannot be continuously reduced.

How many calls cannot be continuously reduced, and how much is called reduction. It seems that this figure is very clear, about 3 trillion, and 3 trillion is the bottom line. At the end of October, it has reached more than 305 billion. In September, it was very powerful. It lost more than 20 billion. Some people worry that 3 trillion can hold it. I estimate that 3 trillion is a benchmark and cannot be less than 3 trillion. This two goals of stabilizing foreign exchange, one, the renminbi can not continue to depreciate; one, the amount of foreign exchange can not continue to decrease.

How to achieve it? I estimate that I will do four things. First, the projects that have been released in the foreign exchange reform will continue to be adhered to. For example, an ID card can buy 50,000 US dollars a year, and these will be put out for export and will not be changed. For the time being, the three overseas investments have basically stopped. For overseas real estate investment, if they have not let go, they will go to the underground bank, or engage in a fake trade account, or bring people out. Sorry now, you have to buy it, don’t advertise it. It’s a problem to find out. At home, this aspect may be severe. In the past, the gray area is not working now, and the investment in personal overseas real estate is basically tightened. Overseas securities investment, the US market to buy US stocks, once discussed whether you want to let go, now tell the family, do not let go, stop. Overseas investment insurance investment has also been completely stopped, we put consumer insurance. In the past, the gray area was swiping bank cards in Hong Kong. Now I can only brush the consumer category, and the investment class can't be brushed because it is completely stopped. Individual three overseas investments basically do not discuss the issue of liberalization, real estate investment, securities investment, investment insurance investment, because it must stabilize foreign exchange.

In the past, there were no restrictions on the use of bank cards for overseas use. Now one person is 100,000 yuan a year, and there are restrictions.而且最近还推出了很绝的一招，远期外汇交易风险准备金率从0提高到20%，银行要卖100美金的话，要向央行交20块钱风险准备金。最近我调研，现在放开的也不好办了，买外汇老找各种托辞，不给你卖。一个人5万美金，各种托辞，实际都标志一个信号，外汇收紧，因为要稳住外汇，这是一个办法。

第二个办法，海外并购，技术类并购继续支持，没有问题，要多少外汇给多少外汇。但非技术类全面叫停了，去年政策还是严格审查，今年全面要叫停了。发改委正式发文6类海外金融投资一律不准干了海外买影院、酒庄、俱乐部全面叫停，去年是严格审查，今年是全面叫停。还放出风来，过去在海外买了这些东西的企业和个人，把外汇怎么出去，现在再怎么倒腾回来。要不倒腾回来，咱们走着瞧，有威胁的意思。现在好多人都在海外卖这些东西，把外汇倒腾回来。最近公布了民营企业40年来100位民营企业家，前几年在海外买买买的企业都没了。为什么呢，先把外汇倒腾出来再说。要不倒腾回来，咱们走着瞧。实际就是告诉家，外汇全面收紧了。海外并购，技术并购继续支持，非技术类全面叫停。

第三条办法，“一带一路”投资，将使用人民币投资，不再动用外汇储备了。“一带一路”投资未来将全面使用人民币投资，不再动用外汇储备了，因为要稳住外汇。实际用人民币投资是一箭双雕，一方面减少外汇储备，一方面推动人民币国际化。这样一来对稳外汇有意义，“一带一路”我们是投资主导方，有权力权利什么样的投资，没有问题。估计“一带一路”投资未来将更多用人民币投资，减少外汇储备，稳住外汇。

第四个办法，在资本项目中做更多运作，外汇进入中国有两个通道，一个是贸易项目，一个是资本项目。现在贸易项目顺差收窄，外汇进来速度在放慢。那么要保持稳定的话，得要在资本项目下运作才行，估计下一步会在资本项目下加运作的力度。比如最近在香港发了50亿人民币国债，调节了香港美和人民币的共处关系，对稳定外汇有意义。如果再发50亿美金国债，等于外汇储备增加50亿。现在国际上好多对中国长久是看好的，有的国家，我个人愿意来买外汇所谓国债，我们要发50亿美金外汇国债，等于外汇储备增加50亿。发人民币国债，稳定汇率，发50亿美金的话等于外汇储备增加。下一步国家会在资本项目上频繁运作，一定会调整，因为要稳住外汇。贸易项目下，因为所谓美国和中国打贸易战影响了中国的出口，所以顺差在收窄，但资本项目还可以合作。

尤其中国在这些方面还有一些的动作，今年上月份，我们在上海成立石油期货交易所，明确宣布上海石油期货交易所交易的货币是人民币，人民币长期和石油挂钩了。过去长期是美和石油挂钩，你们知道美国和我们打贸易战是必然的，我们等于捅了它一刀。现在世界三石油交易所，伦敦、纽约、上海，交易不用美金了，正式宣布产油国在我们这里卖了石油之后拿了人民币，随便可以在中国上海黄金所买黄金。世界发现中国这么多黄金储备，我们是黄金储备世界最的国家之一，这样一来可以支持外汇的稳定。实际上很多对上海石油交易所认识不足，不知道什么意思，实际这是一个重的中国决策。这条决策推出来之后，应该讲外汇基本上能控制住，家不用太担心。

总体来讲，稳外汇就是这四条办法，外汇应该能稳住。外汇只要能稳住，只要这个“秤砣”不会出事，秤砣只要在，转型就不会出现太的金融波动。

稳金融的第三条，稳外汇，致现在情况就是这样，这是稳金融要做的第三件事。

4. 稳股市，股市必须稳住，过去对这个事情认识还不是太足，现在意识到本市场必须要稳住，想办法稳住资本市场。

怎么稳资本市场呢，现在看来有三条办法，第一条办法，提高上市公司质量，上市公司质量必须提高。上市公司质量不高的话，谁敢买你的股票，可能人家不会买你的股票，所以提高上市公司质量。凡是与提高质量有关的重组并购都可以放开，只要能提高上市公司质量的话，可以推动重组并购，都可以。第二条，减少行政对股市的干预。监管部门不要干预股市交易，只要做一件事，保证公开透明。公布信息公开透明，信息的公开。第三条，需要长期资金支持。中国股市不稳定没有长期资金支持，所以像社保基金、保险基金可以入市，下一步推动这种中长期资金进入股市来解决问题。这三条如果能做到的话，应该能稳住资本市场。

最近好像一直在跌，最近又跌到2600以下。我估计与一件事情有关，就是在上海宣布上交所改一个新的板块，科创版，而且要搞注册制。这是好事，既是改革，又是推动技术创新，科创版对中国技术创新募集资金有好处，而注册制等于股市改革手段，本来有好事。但对股民的印象是要扩容了，所以股市往下跌。这样一来，家注意股市的问题很复杂，这三条基本对策应该没有问题，这是对的。但因为人们对股市的判断在现有股民所谓心里还有一些问题产生作用，本来是好事，没有想到一公布股市就跌了。原因是人们觉得要扩容，一旦扩容会不会股价上不来。

本来是两项改革都在这里，一个推动科技版正常融资，一个把审核制变为注册制。既是科学创新改革，也是所谓的体系改革。结果没有想到这个好消息变成负面东西，导致跌了，我估计人们有一个认识过程，这个做法是对的，没有错。实际都在保证一个所谓上市公司质量问题，我们放开科创版和注册制就是提高上市公司质量，让好企业容易上市，但短期给人的印象是扩容，所以导致股市跌，这没什么问题。

但有一条可以看出来，决策层对股市稳定提到重要议事日程上来，这次讲得很清楚，股市必须稳定。股市不稳定，金融就稳定不了，所以下一步稳金融重要内容就是要稳股市。这次上海政策宣布，我觉得应该是利好消息，结果变成利空了，总体来讲是要稳股市，这是稳金融要做的第四件事。

5. 防止资产泡沫破灭，引爆整个金融动荡。

这句话的意思就是房地产是个问题了，明年考验我们能不能稳定金融的关键是房地产。过去房价上升很快我们有办法，中长期对策，中短期都已经有对策。但万一跌怎么办，房地产既不能涨得太快，也不能跌得太快。房价跌得太快，等于泡沫就破了，破了也不行。今年有两类金融机构应该是基本出清了，一个是非银行金融机构，该报的都报完了。第二个是股市已经跌到最低点，实际上分散性金融风险已经爆发了，不是系统性而已。系统性还有一个银行金融机构，银行现在没什么事，而非银行金融机构和股市已经出清了。但是银行不能出事，它要出事就是整个系统性金融风险爆发了。银行不能出事的前提是房地产不能出事，这是重问题。

明年我们遇到稳金融最主要问题可能是房地产问题，最近房价开始回落了，北京二手房回到2016年的水平。如果再往回落的话，落到什么程度能够稳住金融，值得我们研究。明年稳金融主要问题，主要是房价跌怎么办。房价如果跌，你们知道中国人财富65%是房产，等于所有人财富要缩水。第二条，现在信任关系基本建立在房价基础上。一旦跌会不会导致整个信用贷断裂，而且现在好多财产和房产，像上市公司，他们控制房产在1万亿左右，那样暴跌的话是什么结局。明年对我们来讲一个重的压力，可能稳金融核心是房地产问题。这条如果能稳住，渡过这个难关的话，2020年稳金融问题就比较轻松一点。

现在看来，下一步最的问题是关于房地产问题。我们能不能稳住，房价上升太快不行，但下跌太快也不行。应该在什么状态下能够稳住，值得中国研究。从国际经验来看，像美国、日本，你们注意研究它，每次金融风险引爆的都是房地产。美国上次引爆08年金融风险背后是什么，就是次贷危机，是房地产引爆了整个金融危机。对中国来讲下一步一个重要问题，是房地产能不能稳住。稳不住的话，可能麻烦就一点。明年稳金融核心问题是房地产问题，房价能不能下行在我们需要的范围内。而且现在看来有些市场问题不是我们想象的那么标准，一旦出现连锁反应的时候就非常麻烦了。

北京现在就很头疼，基本有价无市。挂牌价格在那里，最后交易时都必须降价。今年3月份以后，我在北京中介机构上了十天班，因为你不能光看统计资料，得体验一下，要观察一下买卖者心态怎么回事。我就发现一套房子总价格在500万，还有流动性，而且绝部分是刚需。一上千万，流动性就很差了，一上三四千万基本没流动性。有一天一位先生要卖奥运村边上一套房子，面积比较，挂牌价格3500万，挂了半年没有人问，很着急。那天专门自己来到中介机构，刚好碰到我跟他聊，他告诉我一直没有人问，很着急。结果来了两位看房者，他特意热情告诉人家说，这是精装修，而且没有住过，可以拎包入住。如果一次性付款的话可以打折，3000万怎么样。那两位老兄听完之后来一句，老兄，我们不是缺那500，缺那3千万!

这就让我注意到一个问题，房地产谁接盘，你思考一下，是个问题。明年如果出现房价回落太快的话，一些房地产政策就要缓步出来，比如房地产税，不能那么着急了。太着急会加速下跌，加速下跌结果并不利于稳定。明年和今年一样，有些政策，像去杠杆政策，今年我们发现问题赶快调整。房地产政策一样，一旦发现不对称马上调整。调整期、调整期，都得调整的意思。没有一个一直坚持的，一旦发现不对就得调整。明年的关键可能是稳住，房地产是个事。房地产稳住，才能稳金融。稳不住的话，金融就稳不住。

在座诸位房子太多的人要注意一下，建议家要关注这个问题，因为有事市场力量是控制不住的。明年关键问题，稳金融核心是房地产能不能稳住，是个问题。如果能稳住的话，应该说金融就能稳住。今年考验我们的是非银行金融机构基本引爆，所谓股市非理性下跌，我们感悟到明年关键，稳金融核心是房地产问题。总体来讲，我们要做的第一件事，稳金融，致就是这5件事。这5件事做好了，金融才能稳住，调整期才能渡过。金融稳不住，调整期走不过来，没法走向高质量增长阶段。

第一件事，稳金融致情况就是这样。

刚才讲到中国进入调整期，调整期要做三件事，一是稳金融;二是稳增长;三是稳开放。

第二件事：稳增长

增长不能出现太多下滑，一旦出现太多的下滑，可能就会影响到整个社会情绪。

怎么稳增长呢，致上要做这么几件事，一是财政政策要更加积极，因为货币政策刚才讲到既要防范风险，它的运作空间是有限的，不能改变货币政策的走势，就是稳健中性，不能走向宽松。这样一来稳增长重要政策是财政政策，财政政策更加积极。财政政策更加积极无非两条办法：

1、一条就是减税费，税费必须减。

上次我们减税，减就减了，但上次减税有一个问题，所有房地产企业减了1/4税，制造企业没有减。家非常有意见，一方面减那么多税，结果没有感觉，因为操作上有问题，导致房地产企业基本都减了1/4税，你问他们，他们都很高兴。但是制造业基本没有减，这就要吸取一个教训。你们知道最近一个文件正在会签，增值税现在三个档次准备合为两个档次，群体性下降1个点。一个点，两税合了之后在一个点应该挺的，这个文件出台的话影响太。昨天税务局长已经开会讨论了，正在讨论更规模减税，增值税要做调整。这样一来，可能对企业减税应该说有好处的，我估计这次可能比较，所有企业都会感觉到真减税了。不像过去只有国务院感觉减税了，家都没有感觉。因为9月份税收的政策只有6%，低于GDP增长。没有减到应该减的方向上，这次税费减的可能比较，这是一个。费，这次所谓“三险一金”，或者“五险一金”下调，这个明确了。

虽然家知道我们征收机构变了，但不会增加税费，还会减少。税费减免在今后经济工作会议上会正式宣布，一个重要的变动是减税费，要让家感觉到减税费。财政政策一个积极的办法是减税费，而且这次力度要，让所有人感觉真减税费了。第二个办法就是加财政投资，财政投资不能搞经营性投资，只能搞基础设施和民生的投资。基础设施和民生的投资今年要进一步加，明年可能也会进一步加。基础设施建设的投资和民生投资在明年国家预算里面力度会比较，这样一来可增加整个社会投资对经济的刺激作用。明年上半年一个是减税，一个是增加财政投资，这两项动作出来的话对稳增长将有很强的意义。因为不做已经不行了，必须这样做了。这是稳增长的一条，财政政策将更加积极。最近决策层不断调研，不断讨论，而且涉及各个层面的问题都在讨论，金融会议应该会宣布这些重的决定。明年稳增长作用上，财政政策会有很的作用。

2、二是加快结构调整，结构调整必须加速，原来我们预见的三个产业要加速推进。

一是战略性新兴产业，八个要点，新能源、新材料、生命生物工程、节能环保、信息技术和移动互联网、新能源汽车、人工智能、高端装备制造，这八个要点必须加速推进。推进过程中一方面释放市场力量，另一方面还要加速国家对这些产业的扶持和推动。像人工智能，中国未来要站在世界第一团队里。凡是市场上这些企业做得好的，国家可以拿钱进行投资，投到一定程度完成这个阶段撤出来。像腾讯做医疗影像不错，确实不错，怎么办，国家加投资。现在腾讯的技术把人五脏六腑都拍得清清楚楚，以后看病都不一定见医生了。原来我们估计科讯飞会在语音人工智能上有突破，结果最近负面东西太多。实际上它这些方面还是有很进步的，想办法尽快推动。凡是在这些方面已经看到有技术突破的，国家应该再推一把，让它尽量能够完成这些方向，实现战略新兴产业快速发展。

最近我看了一下，这些方面确实进步蛮的。这几个要点上，我分别跑了一家企业，一共跑了8个企业。我发现这一方面，这几年确实进步很。我估计也就三年左右时间，这八个要点上经常会冒出来一些企业，可能会释放很强的增长力，要加快战略新兴产业的推动，不能再等了。要尽量缩短这个调整期，让他们尽量释放很强的作用。

服务业，要尽快加速推进。

前几个月我就看一个老师，91岁了，我是他的第一个研究生，弟子，不认识我了。一见面问我是谁，刚讲完过了两分钟，又问你是谁啊。他儿子告诉我，老先生得了老年失忆症患者，没法家庭养老，不认识亲人了。告诉我雇了三个保姆，最后发现三个保姆把老先生捆在椅子上自己玩去了，我就想到机构养老是很重要的。我在日本学习的时候，我的辅导师母亲75岁就是老年失忆患者，90岁才去世的。15年在哪儿生活的，日本托老所生活。日本两个机构很，一个是幼稚园，一个是托老所。他曾经领我去看过他母亲，我才知道15年她母亲在托老所度过，而且度过的非常幸福。为什么，它的托老所分得很细，其中一个部是老年失忆患者部，住的就是这些人。我专门看了一下，结果副部长告诉我，在这里养老失忆患者救治的人，最低是学心理系毕业的，否则无法在这里救治。因为这些人经常会讲莫名其妙的事，要正确应对。

他讲了一个故事，他一天刚从办公室出来，碰到一个老年失忆患者，说中奖了，2个亿。他马上说这件事他知道，确实中了两个亿，中的号码是多少，就告诉这个老人说这两个亿存在银行了，密码是多少多少。结果患者就很高兴，要是没有，他就要砸东西，所以要应对。这些人每天傍晚都很烦燥，每天傍晚要编故事。有一天中午新闻联播播了一个消息，日本首相要到他们城市来了，他们傍晚就宣布一个消息，今天日本首相要来看家了，结果家早早上床休息，结果第二天忘了这个事。他们有时候不愿意打针，结果医生告诉他们这个医院是他们创办的，要自己去体验一下，结果整齐排队打针去了。

这些产业有很高的价值，而且回报一定很高。美国一就业就开始交养老基金，一辈子为这个事奋斗的，就为了未来。中国进入老龄化社会了，刘鹤副总理讲得很对，中国进入老龄化社会带来一个很重要需求，养老需求，很的市场。现在我们讨论市场保证制度是政府要做的事，而养老是个产业，不是养老保障，是产业的问题。这些服务都有巨需求，建议家一定要关注这些服务业。我估计像服务业，无论哪种服务业未来在中国都有很的前途，因为它以人口为基数。中国接近14亿人，所以服务业市场在中国未来对于增长贡献奖是巨的。

现代制造业分两种，一个叫传统制造业，一个是现代制造业。

怎么划分，不是谁现代，谁不现代。是按照生产产品社会性质划分的，凡是生产私人产品的都叫传统制造业。汽车为什么划为传统制造业，因为它生产私人产品。凡是生产公共产品都是叫现代制造业，不是谁现代谁不现代，是按照社会性质划分的。我们国家私人产品严重过剩，吃穿用住严重过剩，传统产品严重过剩。公共产品生产严重短缺，所以生产公共产品是一个力发展的方向，发展现代制造业。怎么发展呢，定了五个重点：

一是航天制造和航空制造，航天计是卫星，航空机就是飞机。

二是高铁装备制造，这是一个重点，中国市场巨，而且完成所有技术创新。

三是核电装备制造，中国新能源厂未来发展重点是核电，2030年发电总量33%来自于核电，核电装备是重要的内容。

四是特高压输变电装备制造，中国现在在准备改造中国电网，利用特高压技术。所谓特高压技术把电能传到5千公里之外，电力传输高速路，特高压输变电装备就列为重点。

五是现代船舶制造和海洋装备制造，中国要建立世界一流的远洋海军，支持远洋海军重要工业部门就是现代船舶制造。

总体来讲，现在定了这样五个重点，要加速推动。一旦启动起来，对我们增长贡献是巨的。现在可以看到加快结构调整主要是这三个产业，一个是战略新兴产业;一个是服务业;一个是现代制造业。结果上次讨论中有些民营企业问，除了服务业好像都干不上。错了，实际上最近讨论的国有和民营，产业结构上发现有两个特征未来很明显。

一个是基础性产业，应该由国有企业完成。比如非竞争性的，投资量很长，时间很长，比如飞机发动机，个人投不成的，回报率回不来，不知道什么时候能成功。基础性产业，重型机械，投资期较长，应该由国有企业来做。

二是实现民营和国有所谓分工协作，这就是所谓的现代制造业未来方向是分工协作。一架飞机零部件600多万以上，你不能搞一个零部件生产吗，未来一定走向分工协作。像上海三工集团就干一件事，设计和组装，所有零部件都是招标采购。高铁那么多零部件，除了底盘是中车控制之外，别的都是招标的，你还不能搞一个过来!

未来民营和国有重要分工就是，国家可能第一方面主要做基础性产业或投资量很重的产业，而民营经济做所谓消费产品。分工协作，零部件配套完成推动。这样一来对民营和国有产业布局将越来越清晰了，家都有事干了。不是没有事干，好多都有事干。你想想船舶制造涉及到那么多产业，你还不能做一个零部件!我一个学生，她给现代船舶搞零部件配套。一个女学生办这么重的企业，就是零部件配套，分工协作。未来民营、国有在产业上分工，在一个产业内部也实现分工，各自发挥自己的优势和特长，来推动发展。

下一步这三个产业上，我们应该加速推动，将有巨意义。我估计中国会缩短结构调整期，可能下一步在政策和资金支持上会进一步缩短这个过程，尽量推动结构调整能够尽快让通过中国经济增长的产业上市。国务院这次开了好几次座谈会，实际就是想加速调整期缩短。只有调整期缩短对稳增长才有意义，而且中国已经明白现在在世界产业链中处于非常优势的地位上。现在这种发达国家都在搞创意经济，搞了半天发现创意只能在中国才能落地。像美国在苹果怎么都干不了，在中国就火起来了，因为所有配套部门都有。我们比发

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