"Thank you for being late" to win slowly, breaking the future pattern (US) Thomas Friedman with the Jing JJ Zhu Yingxi Cui Yi translation Hunan Science and Technology Press published in January 2018
- Read Thomas Friedman "Thank you for being late"
⊙ Pan Qiwen
As early as 2006, "New York Times" columnist Thomas Friedman put forward in the "World is Flat": the lightning-fast development of technology and communication in the process of globalization, making people all over the world unprecedented Close to each other, the world is gradually flattening. He had thought that this analytical framework could be used for several years, and for only 10 years, the world was reshaped by the subversive Moore's Law, the market and the three forces of nature: jobs, national governance, geopolitical situations, social ethics and communities. Life is refactoring.
All of this, as Friedman said, is largely due to Moore's Law (the exponential growth of chip computing and processing power). It may be difficult for the human brain to understand the concept and power of exponential growth—what would happen if anything continues to grow 2, 3 or 4 times over the years?
The three forces simultaneously accelerate the formation of the "accelerated era"
Every time Intel Chairman Brian Kzaknik tries to explain Moore's Law, he will give this example: such as the first generation model 4004 microchip produced by Intel in 1971 and the latest model 6th generation Intel Core currently on the market. Compared with the processor, the performance of the latest model chip has increased by 3,500 times, the energy efficiency has increased by 90,000 times, and the cost is only one thousandth of the original. According to a rough estimate by Intel engineers, if the automotive industry also applies Moore's Law, today the speed of the Beetle should be 300,000 miles per hour, 2 million miles per gallon of gasoline, and only 4 cents. If the speed of a car's energy-efficient massage law is improved, then today, when you drive a lifetime car, you only need to consume 1 case of oil.
Friedman’s view of how the world today works in "Thank you for being late" is actually standing on the second machine revolution: how digital technology will change our economy and society. Eric Brian Jufferson and Andrew McCaffee's shoulders. Brian Joffson and McCaffle believe that Moore's Law has just "entered the second half of the board," and the result of the doubling has been so large and rapid that people began to see some fundamental changes in energy and ability. Something: self-driving cars, computers with autonomous thinking skills, can compete in any chess game, in "Big Adventures", and even in any Go game that is considered to be far superior to chess and has a 2,500-year history. . However, Friedman believes that not only technological changes have entered the second half of the board, but the other two giant forces are the market and nature.
"Market" is the abbreviation of Friedman's acceleration of globalization. The global mobility and interoperability of business, finance, credit, and social networking is closely interwoven with markets, media, central banks, companies, schools, communities, and individuals. The flow of information and knowledge has made our world not only too close to each other. No matter where a person is, it is more susceptible to the influence of another person who is there and becomes more vulnerable. “Nature†is Friedman’s short for climate change, population growth, and biodiversity loss. The simultaneous acceleration of the market, nature and Moore's Law constitutes an "accelerated era." These forces are the core components that drive the world's machines today. The acceleration of these three forces is also intermingling: the acceleration of Moore's Law drives the acceleration of globalization, the acceleration of globalization drives the acceleration of climate change, and the acceleration of Moore's Law provides more potential for climate change and many other challenges we face. The solution is also changing every aspect of modern life.
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Will the "accelerated era" become our close friend or deadly enemy? Friedman suggested that we must “make the power of newly discovered individuals, the power of machines, the power of all people, and the power of mobility become our friends, and become tools for us to create rich resources without insurmounting the boundaries of the earth, instead of Our enemy."
Technological advances have not only replaced the jobs of blue-collar workers, but have also replaced white-collar elites, even including chess masters. Someone asked the Dutch chess grandmaster Donal, if he played chess with the computer, such as IBM "dark blue", he would prepare in advance. Donal said: "I will bring a hammer." Technological progress is always creative destruction. As technology continues to advance, we have to move from one platform to another, and the impact on the labor market is becoming wider and wider, and the impact of technology is growing rapidly. In 2016, the World Economic Forum predicted the “fourth industrial revolutionâ€: affected by automation and robotics, 5 million people will lose their jobs by 2020. These 5 million people not only cover a large number of blue-collar workers, but also white-collar workers, such as clerks, drivers, and technicians.
As an optimist, Friedman believes that thinking about intimidating technology or simplification like Donal does not help, we need to “rethink the relationship between employees and employees, students and educational institutions, governments and citizens. contract". To understand how the new social contract is structured, Friedman cites James Besson, a researcher at Boston University School of Law, in "Innovation, Wage and Wealth: Why Technology Advance, Wealth Increases, Your Wage Stops" Related research results to deepen his investigation and analysis: The core challenge to focus on is skills, not work. There are two aspects of internal logic that are evocative.
First, "task automation and job automation are two different things." The former will not steal human work, but the latter will completely replace humans. Of course, there is indeed a job that has completely disappeared because the entire industry has disappeared. However, there is a huge difference between a job that achieves 98% automation and a job that is 100% automated. In the 19th century, 98% of the labor of weavers was automated, and the amount of manual labor was reduced from 100% to 2%. What happened next? The number of weaver jobs has increased. Because when most of the work that was originally done manually was replaced by machines, the overall production efficiency increased, the price dropped, and the demand for products surged. At the beginning of the 19th century, many people only had one set of clothes, which were all made by hand. By the end of the 19th century, most people had multiple sets of clothes, curtains on the windows, carpets on the floors, and decorations on the furniture. That is to say, with the automation of weaving, the price of fabrics has dropped, and the use of fabrics has increased. Ultimately, the increase in demand has offset the replacement of labor by machines.
People once thought that machines would replace bank tellers, but after the emergence of a large number of ATMs, the number of bank tellers increased. Since 2000, the number of full-time bank tellers has increased by 2% per year, much higher than the overall labor market. Because ATMs allow banks to operate branches at lower cost, prompting banks to open more branches or branches. At the same time, the skills of tellers are changing, and the ability of marketing and interpersonal communication becomes more valuable. Even though ATMs automate routine cash handling tasks, technology does not determine whether bank tellers are increasing or decreasing. The economic issues behind it are the key. New technologies can increase demand for specific occupations and offset the loss of imaginary jobs. Since the late 1990s, electronic document retrieval software for legal proceedings has replaced the work of the original paralegal, while the number of paralegals has grown strongly. E-commerce now accounts for more than 7% of total retail sales, but since 2000, the total number of people engaged in sales has been growing.
“The impact of technology is not evenly distributed.†Technology can create new job requirements, such as data science engineers. At the same time, even though technology has changed the skills needed for ancient routine work such as bank tellers, legal assistants, and store salesmen, it seems that computers and robots will quickly eliminate them, but in fact technology has not only changed traditional work, but also Will greatly improve the skills requirements of these positions. Graphic designers who can use computer-aided design software can make more money than graphic designers who only use old-fashioned typesetting machines.
For newcomers in the workplace, the middle class profession is being “upgraded†more quickly, and the threshold is rapidly increasing, which requires more knowledge and education. In order to compete for such work, Friedman believes that 3R skills need to be improved: Reading, Writing and Arithmetic, and 4C skills: Creativity, Collaboration, Communication (Communication) and programming (Coding). At the same time, each job is "pulled out" more quickly. This forces the workplace to strengthen self-motivation, relentlessly learn new skills or social emotional skills, and make yourself one step ahead of robots and any other skilled foreigner. Because each job is “disassembled†more quickly, the outdated speed will be faster, which will require more entrepreneurial thinking at every level: continue to find new niches and new opportunities.
Today, work that cannot be outsourced, automated, robotic, or digitized is in line with Friedman's work called "Technology + Feelings" (a combination of powerful science and technology skills and the ability to empathize with others). These jobs require the ability to apply professional skills and interpersonal skills, and integrate computing with psychology. For example, talking to an artificial intelligence program such as Watson can hold the patient's hand to inform the diagnosis; let the robot milk the cow, and gently stroke the cow when it needs extra care.
The paradox in today's world is that the faster the world changes, the more the three accelerating forces of the market, nature and Moore's Law change the way we live. The more we need to slow down, the more we can support the lifelong learning. The foundation of education and anchor yourself in a strong family and healthy community.
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